Match Madness: Probability Matching in Prediction of the NCAA Basketball Tournament1
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Match Madness, 1 Match madness: Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament
Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The current work examines how individuals make predictions for one of the most popular forms of betting, tournament pools, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher-s...
متن کاملMatch Madness: Probability Matching in Prediction of the NCAA Basketball Tournament
Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. This study examines how individuals make predictions for tournament pools, one of the most popular forms of betting, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher seeded ...
متن کاملMatch madness: Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament
Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The current work examines how individuals make predictions for one of the most popular forms of betting, tournament pools, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher-s...
متن کاملAn Economic Slam Dunk or March Madness? Assessing the Economic Impact of the NCAA Basketball Tournament
The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament qualifies as a sports mega-event, and cities across the United States compete vigorously with one another to host what is, by most measures, the premier intercollegiate sporting event in the United States. The promise of substantial economic impact has convinced cities to “invest” substantial sums of money to meet the dem...
متن کاملExploring Chance in NCAA Basketball
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify the most likely proportion of matches decided by chance. We argue that the approach that has been chosen so far makes some simplifying assumptions that caus...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Applied Social Psychology
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0021-9029,1559-1816
DOI: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00551.x